Impact Assessment Strengthening the resilience of agribusinesses in NES through sustainable agricultural practices and improved economic performance Northeast Syria
Department
Syria سوريا
Employment Type
Consultant
Minimum Experience
Experienced
NEF Belgium (Near East Foundation - NEF) is implementing the project “Strengthening the resilience of agribusinesses in NES through sustainable agricultural practices and improved economic performance” in Northeast Syria. The intervention is designed to address structural constraints affecting agricultural productivity, income generation, and food security in conflict-affected and climate-vulnerable areas.
The project targets Ar Raqqa (Al Thawra, Hawi Alhawa) and Deir ez-Zor (Hajin) and is built on an integrated model that combines technical, financial, and market-based support to strengthen agribusiness resilience. Specifically, the intervention includes:
- Sustainable agriculture through demonstration sites and technical training
- Business development and improved market access
- Financial inclusion through loans provision
The project supports:
- 800 agribusinesses through capacity-building interventions
- 230 borrowers through tailored financial services
The intervention is implemented in a highly fragile context characterized by persistent food insecurity, declining agricultural productivity, and limited access to finance and technical services. In this context, the project seeks to promote a transition from subsistence-based production to more sustainable and market-oriented agricultural systems.
As the project approaches its completion in June 2026, NEF seeks to conduct a rigorous endline impact assessment to measure results, validate the theory of change, and generate strategic learning for future programming.
The purpose of this assessment is to provide an independent and evidence-based evaluation of the project’s performance and results. The assessment will focus on measuring changes at outcome and impact levels, while also examining the effectiveness of the project’s integrated approach. It will be conducted as a mixed methods impact assessment, using contribution analysis as the main approach.
More specifically, the evaluation aims to:
- Measure changes in key outcome and impact indicators
- Validate the project’s theory of change and underlying assumptions
- Assess value for money and the relative effectiveness of different intervention components
- Generate strategic and operational learning
- Inform future programming, scale-up, and design of similar interventions.
Overall Objective
To assess the extent to which the project contributed to improved resilience, income, productivity, and food security among targeted agribusinesses.
Specific Objectives
The evaluation will pursue the following specific objectives:
- Measure the achievement of key logframe indicators, including income, productivity, food security (FIES), and adoption of sustainable practices
- Assess the extent to which the intervention contributed to observed changes.
- Evaluate the effectiveness of the integrated delivery model combining training, financial services, and demonstration sites
- Assess the extent to which the intervention contributes to strengthening local systems, including governance structures, market systems, and value chain dynamics
- Assess gender equality, inclusion, and targeting effectiveness
- Examine the sustainability and scalability of project interventions
- Formulate actionable evidence-based recommendations to inform future programming, scale-up, and strategic direction.
4. Evaluation Criteria & Questions
The evaluation will be guided by OECD-DAC and GIZ evaluation criteria. The service provider is expected to structure the analysis around these criteria and ensure that findings are supported by both quantitative and qualitative evidence:
1. Relevance
- To what extent did the project address key constraints in agribusiness systems?
2. Effectiveness
- To what extent were outcomes achieved?
- To what extent did participants adopt sustainable practices and improve business capacities?
- What role did demonstration sites play in influencing behavior change?
3. Efficiency
- Were resources used optimally?
- Was the intervention cost-effective?
- Which components drove impact?
4. Impact
- What changes occurred in income, productivity, and food security?
- To what extent did the project contribute to improved resilience and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies?
5. Sustainability
- Are practices sustained?
- Are businesses viable?
- Are systems functional?
6. Gender & Inclusion
- Did the project effectively and equally reach and benefit women and youth?
- Were barriers reduced?
7. Learning
- What worked well?
- What did not work well, and why?
- What lessons can be drawn to inform future programming and strategic positioning?
- What are the most relevant and scalable components of the intervention, particularly in relation to local systems and value chains?
8. Systems, Governance and Sustainability
- How are key intervention components, particularly demonstration sites, embedded within local systems and governance structures?
- What were the ownership and management models of demonstration sites, and how did these influence their effectiveness and sustainability?
- What alternative models (private sector, cooperatives, local authorities) could enhance sustainability and scalability?
- To what extent did the intervention align with and respond to local market dynamics, including consumer demand and preferences?
The evaluation will cover all targeted locations and beneficiary groups and should ensure adequate representation across key sub-groups, including gender and vulnerability categories.
- Geographic Scope
- Ar Raqqa: Al Thawra, Hawi Alhawa
- Deir ez-Zor: Hajin
- Target Population
- 800 trained agribusinesses
- 230 loan recipients
Sub-groups:
- Women (~35%)
- IDPs (~10%)
- PWD (~10%)
- Timeframe
- Project duration: Dec 2024 – June 2026
- Assessment period: June – August 2026
The service provider is expected to design and implement a robust mixed-methods evaluation that combines quantitative and qualitative approaches to ensure a comprehensive and credible assessment of project outcomes and impacts.
The evaluation will build on existing project datasets, including baseline and endline data collected through NEF’s MEAL team, and will complement these with additional primary data collection as needed to strengthen the analysis and triangulation.
The proposed methodology must ensure comparability with baseline data, enabling statistically valid conclusions on changes over time. Particular attention should be given to sampling design, stratification, and data triangulation to ensure representativeness and analytical rigor.
In addition, the service provider is expected to go beyond descriptive analysis and apply an analytical approach that allows for assessing contribution. The methodology should clearly articulate how observed changes will be linked to project interventions.
- Quantitative Component
The quantitative component will draw on existing baseline and endline datasets collected by NEF, while also incorporating complementary quantitative data collection where needed to support validation of findings and deeper analysis.
- The internal endline survey will serve as the primary source for logframe indicator measurement, while the external impact assessment will focus on analysis, validation and broader assessment of outcomes and impacts.
- The sample should be statistically representative and sufficiently powered to allow disaggregation by key variables (e.g., gender, location, borrower status).
Sampling approach:
- Borrowers (n=230): census preferred; alternatively, a minimum representative sample of ≥140 respondents
- Non-borrowers (trained participants): statistically representative sample
Key survey modules should include, at minimum:
- Income and revenue
- Productivity
- Food security (FIES)
- Adoption of sustainable practices
- Employment and economic activity
- Qualitative Component
The qualitative component will complement quantitative findings by providing contextual understanding and explanatory depth.
- Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) should be conducted and appropriately segmented (e.g., by gender and location)
- Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) should include:
- Project beneficiaries
- NEF staff
- Implementing partners (TOTOL, Bedaya)
- Case studies and/or Most Significant Change (MSC) stories should be developed to capture in-depth evidence of change
The qualitative component should explicitly support triangulation and help explain key trends identified in the quantitative analysis.
Particular attention should be given to understanding the functioning, ownership and sustainability of demonstration sites, including their role within the local market and governance systems.
- Data Sources
The evaluation must integrate and triangulate multiple data sources to enhance the robustness of findings. These include:
- Baseline and endline survey datasets
- Lending Management System (LMS) data, including credit reports (CRs)
- Training and participation records
- IPTT indicators
- Demonstration site monitoring data
- Data Quality
The service provider must implement strong data quality assurance mechanisms throughout the evaluation process. These should include:
- Comprehensive enumerator training
- Pilot testing of tools prior to data collection
- Back-checks and spot checks during fieldwork
- Systematic data cleaning and validation protocols
The service provider should clearly outline methodological limitations and any constraints affecting the ability to assess the impact or contribution.
Inception Report
Methodology, tools, sampling
Week 2
Data Collection Tools
Quant + qual tools
Week 2
Clean Dataset
Raw + cleaned data
Week 5
Draft Report
Full analysis
Week 7
Validation Workshop
Presentation of findings
Week 8
Final Report
Revised + annexes
Week 9
The final report should include:
- Executive summary
- Methodology and limitations
- Key findings
- Gender and inclusion analysis
- Lessons learned
- Strategic recommendations
- Annexes (tools, datasets, sampling). All datasets must be submitted in clean, anonymized formats with a clear codebook and syntax file to ensure transparency and reproducibility of findings (if needed).
Minimum requirements:
- Team Leader (Evaluation Specialist) with 8-10 years of relevant experience
- Agriculture/livelihoods expert
- MEAL/data analyst
- Field enumerators (gender-balanced)
- Estimated duration: 8–10 weeks.
- Fieldwork: 2-3 weeks including data validation and initial validation.
The financial proposal should provide a detailed breakdown of costs, including daily rates, fieldwork expenses, and any subcontracting costs.
- Informed consent.
- Data protection
- Do-no-harm principle
- Safeguarding compliance
Particular attention should be given to working with vulnerable populations in conflict-affected settings.
The service provider will be granted access to relevant data in line with NEF’s data protection and data sharing protocols. All data must be handled in compliance with applicable data protection standards, and any use of personal or sensitive data must be strictly limited to the purposes of the evaluation.
12.Technical and Application Requirements
To control quality the bidders should have:
- Demonstrated experience in impact evaluations in fragile and conflict-affected contexts preferably Syria.
- Demonstrated experience in conducting impact evaluations using mixed methods approaches.
- Experience with:
- Agriculture/livelihoods
- Financial inclusion programmes
- Strong data quality protocols.
Interested service providers must submit:
- Technical proposal (methodology + timeline)
- Financial proposal (detailed budget)
- Team CVs
- Previous relevant work samples.
Location
NES, Syria (Hybrid)
Department
Syria سوريا
Employment Type
Consultant
Minimum Experience
Experienced